On a sunny glorious Santa Ana day in San Diego, CA, the Eve of Opening Day 2009. Padres fans throughout the county of San Diego and elsewhere are ready for some baseball. From various publications such as newspapers, websites and other sport related media, the Padres have been forecast to finish in last place. Ahhh, so what ! That’s like many financial brokers telling their clients for the past 7 years not to place any investments in commodities like gold and silver. What do they actually know ? Nothing, basically just blowing smoke and acting like the herd mentality. Same goes for the so called experts on baseball. I like the role of the underdog and to put things in simple terms. I feel the Padres are going to overachieve their expectations and become a surprise player in the NL West Division. In the end, the Padres may not win the division but they certainly have just a good chance of winning it or at worst case have a profound affect in who wins the division.

On Monday 6 April, the Division battle and supremacy of So Cal baseball begins as the Los Angeles Dodgers come into town for a four game opening series. Speaking about the Dodgers, just recently during Spring Training one of their pitchers had made a remark about our Padres. Here is the remark and great bulletin board material – “You can’t give up on a season,” said Estes, who spent parts of the past two seasons with the Padres. “As players, you’ve got to give yourselves a chance going into it. But there’s definitely going to be some growing pains. Even though many of their (Padres) kids have a year or two under their belt now, it’s going to be a long year, I think.” Back on 5 March on this blog I said the following – “Hmmm, well all I can say is I hope Estes can stay on the roster the whole year unlike his time in San Diego. Otherwise, it’s going to be a very long year again for him in LA.” I just have one question that is – Where is Estes now ? Oh I forgot he’s in AAA. Well, Estes long year is starting out as well and tomorrow the Dodgers will find out the Padres will be a nemesis once again.

Predictions
I say the Padres will finish the season with a record of 84-78 which will place them in 3rd place. The Arizona D’backs will win the division with a record of 90-72, the Dodgers will finish in 2nd at 86-76, the Giants in 4th at 79-83 and the Rockies in last at 70-92. The Dodgers will finish the 2009 series with the Padres at 9-9 which will basically cost them the division title. I am not going to toss out some statistical analysis on how I derived those results mentioned above. As I note a quote by a former player “Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983” But what I will do, is give you some basic fundamentals. The Dodgers have lost Lowe, Saito and Bremmel Beimel from their pitching staff. In this game, you can never have too much pitching. The D’backs picked up P Jon Garland and that’s a tremendous benefit. The Giants, well stayed at status-quo despite acquiring P Randy Johnson and SS Edgar Renteria. I feel both are on their downward cycle in terms of productivity. The Giants young arms in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez will keep them in the games. The Rockies ? Gone is Holiday who in my opinion was the difference maker in that line-up. The Rockies pitching is suspect and extreme volatility in terms of production just like the current financial markets. That leaves us with the Padres, who will surprise many with a full year of production from P Chris Young and pleasant surprises in Correia, Silva and Prior. Yes, Mark Prior may have an impact in the 2nd half of the season. The offense will be an upgrade from the previous seasons and there will be some exciting baseball played at Petco Park. How will my predictions turn out ? Well in 6 months or so, we will all find out and you might have a chance to throw me under the bus. Though, I am just being a speculator and a contrarian at that. There is always a silver lining in every dark cloud, which poses the next question. Which will come first the spot price of silver at 25.00 per ounce or the Padres 25th win of the year ? I say the latter !

The Dodgers are about to arrive in San Diego later this evening, and in the meantime. The Padres get to work-out today at Petco, sign a few autographs while soaking in the so cal sunshine. It’s about time we get down to business San Diegan’s, baseball is here Opening Day 2009 ! Time to get our backs off the wall and get down to support our Padres. Which leads to the video of the day, by Kool & The Gang ‘Get Down on it’.